AKEED, Aya Khawaldeh

One daily newspaper and several electronic sites published a report headlined "Kingdom"s Fuel Consumption Rises by 36.1%." The report contained wrong figures about the rise in the consumption of oil derivatives in 2017, particularly diesel and 95-octane gasoline, compared with 2016.

The large increase announced by the newspaper, quoting Nahar Seidat, president of the Gas Stations Owners Association (GSOA), comes at a time when the sector is complaining about a drop in consumption. In an interview with the Jordan News Agency, Petra, in September 2017, Yaser Manaseer, director general of Manaseer Oil and Gas, confirmed the drop in consumption, attributing this to "a new culture of consumption or rationalizing consumption in the Kingdom, dictated by the rise in prices of oil derivatives."

The Jordanian Media Credibility Monitor (AKEED) checked the figures in the report and discovered a big discrepancy between them and the numbers it obtained from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, which were audited by the Ministry of Finance. The figures showed the consumption for 2016-2017 during the period "January-November" because consumption in December 2017 was not ready by the time the report was drafted due to the fact that the ministry had not received the figures from the suppliers.

Official figures have confirmed that the total consumption of oil derivatives for 11 months in 2017 was 3.837 billion liters, at an increase of 0.03% compared with the same period of 2016, in which consumption totaled 3.836 billion liters. Meanwhile, Nahar Seidat, president of the GSOA, announced to a local newspaper an increase of 36.1% in 2017, which recorded the consumption of 5.52 billion liters compared with 2016, in which consumption was 4.05 billion liters. This is far removed from the real figure.

Seidat also pointed out that the consumption of diesel in 2017 rose by 70% to reach 3.21 billion liters. It was 1.88 billion liters in 2016. However, figures by the Ministry of Energy indicate that it rose in 2017 by 0.451%, with the quantity of consumption totaling 1.969 billion liters.

The odd thing about Seidat"s numbers, which are published in the report, is the rise in the consumption of 95-octane gasoline. He said that the rise totaled 76% by consuming 486 million liters in 2017 compared with 2016, which recorded the consumption of 276 million liters. This is incorrect. Figures by the Ministry of Energy showed a drop by 22% by consuming 182 million liters in 2017, while consumption totaled 235 million liters in 2016.

The consumption of 90-octane gasoline rose in 2017 by 3%, compared with the same period for 2016. In 2017, the Kingdom consumed 1.591 billion liters compared with the previous year, which recorded 1.541 million liters in 11 months, contrary to what Seidat said. Seidat noted that there was a drop by 2.7% based on the consumption of 1.71 billion liters in 2017 and 1.75 in 2016.

In an interview with AKEED, a specialist in this field from one of the marketing companies, who declined to be named, said that the figures in the aforementioned report were wrong and were nowhere near the truth. The consumption of oil derivatives for 2016 totaled 4.186 billion liters, while the consumption of oil derivatives between early 2017 and the end of November totaled 3.837 billion liters.

According to the estimates of the specialist, the consumption in December is expected to be 345 million liters. Thus, the total consumption for 2017 will be 4.182 billion from all gas stations. Therefore, the increase in consumption in 2017 will be very small compared with 2016.

Fahd al-Fayez, a specialist in the fuel sector, told AKEED that "the figures are unrealistic. The rise in the consumption of diesel by 70% suggests that the economic situation in Jordan is excellent. The previous figure shows that the transport sector is in the best shape and that the Jaber and Ruwayshed border crossings are open. Besides, this means that the industrial sector is doing great and the export rate is high, which is untrue. It is very important to note that the cold weather set in late this year. We did not need to use diesel in October, November, and December 2017."

Al-Fayez asserted that "the information is flawed, especially since the three marketing companies are complaining about a drop in consumption." He adds that "in light of the difficult economic conditions experienced by Jordanian citizens, the demand on consuming gasoline 90, and not 95, should increase in view of the big difference in their prices. A liter of gasoline 90 is sold for 73 piasters, while a liter of gasoline 95 is sold for 95 piasters, which is a big difference." He pointed out that "increases in consumption are usually reasonably low. Big increases rarely happen."

In a call with AKEED, Nahar Seidat, president of the GSOA, attributed the increase in the consumption of gasoline 95 to the rise in the number of modern cars in Jordan, which usually use this type of gasoline. He added: "Previously, one liter of gasoline 95 was sold for one dinar, while it is now 95 piasters. It is not very much different from the price of one liter of gasoline 90. Gas stations saw more and more citizens mixing the two types. Therefore, its consumption has increased."

As for the rise in the consumption of diesel, Seidat said that the figure "included the amount of diesel in the tanks of the three companies that is planned to be consumed in 2018." He could not provide a figure for consumption minus the stored amount.

In this regard, the AKEED Monitor stresses that media outlets must observe accuracy and caution when it comes to figures, especially those that provide percentages, whether reflecting a sharp increase or decrease. People who do such reports should inquire about reasons and try to explain them to the readers and check their accuracy. This is because those who do such reports are usually specialists in the sector.

The AKEED Monitor recalls that it is a basic duty of journalists to provide the latest updates with regard to figures and percentages. This is a right for viewers, listeners, and readers. It requires an exceptional effort by journalists to provide this in a correct, accurate, and useful manner. Figures and percentages have to make sense. The economic press in the Arab world, in its current state, often falls into the trap of circulating figures that are detached from their implications and effects on the life of the public. AKEED had previously published an article that speaks about best practices in handling figures under the headline "Handling Figures."